Adequacy and flexibility study for Belgium (2026-2036) - Executive summary
• Accelerating the rate at which electrification occurs in Belgium will push the level of demand beyond the level of available capacity from 2028 onwards
• The capacity remuneration mechanism (CRM) remains a cornerstone of Belgium’s adequacy strategy – it keeps vital thermal capacity online while driving investment in new low-carbon assets
• A forward-looking energy strategy for Belgium that includes structural levers could complement the capacity secured by the CRM and close the supply gap
• Flexibility is key: the system needs both responsive consumption and generation to occur in order to manage increasing volatility and periods of oversupply
FOREWORD
KEEPING THE LIGHTS ON IN A FAST-CHANGING ENERGY SYSTEM
Dear reader,
The energy transition is changing at an unprecedented pace, and growing uncertainties are emerging on many fronts. Predicting long-term trends has become more challenging than ever.
Many of the assumptions adopted in our previous studies — especially those related to the electrification of the transport and heating sectors and the rapid deployment of solar PV — have proven accurate and are now being validated by recent developments.
Not all sectors have progressed at the same speed. The energy transition continues to present the sector with surprises. The remarkable growth of battery storage and data centres, for example, has far exceeded expectations. By contrast, forecasts related to industrial consumption levels have yet to materialise, largely due to uncertainties and delays in industrial electrification and broader competitiveness pressures.
PLANNING FOR MULTIPLE FUTURES TO ADDRESS UNCERTAINTY
In this highly dynamic environment, fact-based scenario planning is essential to capture diverging trends. This helps us to provide the best possible insights about our electricity system, as some developments are accelerating while others are unfolding more gradually.
In order to reflect these uncertainties, three distinct scenario frameworks are included in this study for the first time: (1) Constrained Transition (2) Current Commitments & Ambitions and (3) Prosumer Power
Each framework is built around different assumptions regarding policy decisions, technological progress, and societal trends. These are not forecasts, but explorations of how the future energy landscape could change given different conditions.
By using this broader scenario framework, we aim to support policymakers to take more robust and forward-looking decisions about the design and dimensioning of Belgium’s future energy system. Such decisions need to take into account the long lead times required to develop new infrastructure and implement technical solutions.
FLEXIBILITY IS BECOMING CRITICAL ON BOTH THE DEMAND AND SUPPLY SIDES
The growing complexity of the energy system also raises important operational challenges. For example, the level of grid congestion is increasing as connection volumes outpace the development of grid infrastructure, while the rapid expansion of renewables is causing more frequent moments of oversupply to occur.
In addition to storage – of which a significant amount of capacity is already connected to the high-voltage grid - the system will need more flexible consumption patterns and more controllable renewable energy sources. Together, these will both strengthen the system’s resilience and also unlock new opportunities for consumers and market players.
Consumption which has a greater level of responsiveness to the availability of renewables and market prices offers clear benefits. Shifting the consumption of electricity to periods during which high levels of renewable output occur – when
electricity is more abundant and affordable – supports both the stability and efficiency of the system.
Managing renewable generation also plays a key role. Even with more responsive demand patterns, moments will occur when modulating solar or other renewable output will allow suppliers’ portfolios to be optimised and helps to safeguard the stability of the system. This approach is not about limiting renewables, but about enabling their full and sustainable integration into the system in the most cost-effective way.
THE CRM REMAINS KEY, AND MAY BE COMPLETED WITH OTHER STRUCTURAL LEVERS
As Belgium moves towards accelerating its pace of electrification, the need to secure additional capacity will become critical – with new capacity required from 2028 onwards to maintain security of supply. While shifts in consumer behaviour can help to manage peaks in demand, the greater challenge lies in ensuring a resilient, low-carbon electricity supply.
In this context, the CRM remains a cornerstone of adequacy. Without it, there is a real risk that existing thermal assets will exit the market prematurely, and that new investments may fall short – both in terms of scale and timing.
Additional structural levers could be mobilised to complement the capacity that is developed through the CRM. These levers could both address adequacy gaps and also challenges related to gaps in the energy supply. Adequacy and energy supply are two sides of the same coin.
These levers include options such as the lifetime extension of nuclear units or the construction of new units, additional available offshore wind capacity, cross-border capacity and interconnectors, and the structural reduction of demand (through energy sobriety and efficiency measures). Timely decisions about these options would enable the Belgian system to gradually include a more diversified, resilient and decarbonised energy mix.
THE SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE TABLE
This report is a call to deliver. The facts are known, the levers have been identified, and there is political will to shape a longterm energy vision for our country.
Delivering on this vision will require the continued implementation of the CRM, an acceleration of the development of flexibility - both on the demand and generation sidesand greater clarity about long-term choices for the energy mix. Achieving this will require coordinated and sustained efforts from all actors: public authorities, regulators, grid operators, producers, market participants, industrial players, and citizens.
I would like to thank all our experts who once again dedicated their energy and expertise to this report, as well as all of our stakeholders for their valuable suggestions and feedback. I sincerely hope that this report will act as a meaningful contribution to the upcoming discussions that will be held about the shaping of Belgium’s future energy policy. Delivering on this collective commitment is now our shared priority.
Frederic Dunon CEO of Elia Transmission Belgium
WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ‘ADEQUACY’ AND ‘FLEXIBILITY’?
‘Adequacy’ and ‘flexibility’ are two key pillars that ensure the secure and reliable operation of any electricity system. Both are essential to maintaining a country’s security of supply. In this study, Elia analyses and quantifies Belgium’s adequacy and flexibility needs for the 2026–2036 period.
Adequacy refers to the ability of an electricity system to meet the demand for electricity in line with the system reliability standards which are set by the government. It therefore relates to ensuring that enough electricity is available to cover consumption levels, even during periods when the demand for electricity is high or during unexpected events — such as extreme weather conditions or when there are disruptions abroad.
A system is considered ‘adequate’ if it meets the national reliability standard, which in Belgium limits the loss of load expectation (LOLE) to no more than three hours per year.
Flexibility, on the other hand, is the system’s capacity to handle expected and unexpected variations in the production and consumption of electricity. These fluctuations are becoming more frequent due to the growing share of variable renewable energy sources (like wind and solar) in the system. At the same time, as electrification spreads across the transport, heating and industrial sectors, new forms of flexible electricity consumption are emerging. These can be activated to balance the system more efficiently, helping to keep it affordable, sustainable, and secure.
As more renewable energy sources like wind and solar are integrated into the electricity system, flexibility becomes increasingly important. These weather-dependent resources cannot be dispatched like conventional power plants. As a result, the system must deal with periods of oversupply, when more electricity is produced than consumed, and power deficits, when there isn’t enough electricity to meet the demand for it.
If these imbalances are not addressed in real time, they can affect grid stability and eventually lead to a blackout. Flexibility is essential for absorbing these fluctuations — by adjusting levels of consumption and/or generation — and for keeping the system balanced, reliable and secure.
CHANGE IN EMPHASIS OVER TIME
This publication marks Elia’s fifth adequacy and flexibility study for Belgium, covering the next ten years.
Whilst the system’s adequacy remains a core pillar in this year’s study, our analyses increasingly highlight the need to include flexibility as a structural component of system security.
For nearly a decade now, Elia has been highlighting the need for flexibility in the system. Currently, that need is more tangible than ever: whilst technologies like battery storage systems are being scaled up, end-user flexibility and modulation of decentralised PV remains underdeveloped and undervalued. Unlocking this potential — through market design, digitalisation, and behavioural incentives — will be essential for harnessing the full benefits of a
system.
THREE SCENARIOS TO ANTICIPATE BELGIUM’S ENERGY OUTLOOK
To ensure a robust and forward-looking assessment of Belgium’s needs, we’ve moved beyond a single-scenario approach to embrace a more diversified methodology. Our analyses now build on three forward-looking scenario frameworks, each of which reflects a different trajectory – ranging from slower transitions to more ambitious, accelerated paces of change.
The scenarios provide a broad yet realistic perspective of how Belgium’s electricity system could change over the next decade. In today’s highly dynamic and uncertain environment, scenario-based planning is essential for capturing diverging trends and emerging uncertainties. It enables us to deliver the most relevant insights into the electricity system, so providing decision-makers with support that remains robust across a wide range of possible futures, as some developments accelerate while others unfold more gradually.
CURRENT COMMITMENTS & AMBITIONS SCENARIO
This is the path Belgium is currently on, assuming that announced targets are indeed implemented across Europe.
This scenario is aligned with Belgium’s current energy policy and announced targets. It reflects official forecasts from the Bureau du Plan, the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), recent federal and regional government agreements, and electrification plans from the industrial sector.
CONSTRAINED TRANSITION SCENARIO
This scenario assumes a slower uptake of electric vehicles, heat pumps, and end-user flexibility — as well as delays in the deployment of wind generation, storage and grids across Europe.
This scenario assumes that Europe faces challenging macro-economic conditions. This could slow down the pace of grid development, renewable energy investment, and electrification of industry.
It also considers supply chain difficulties, delays in the implementation of certain policies — like EU Emissions Trading System 2 (ETS2) — and low levels of public acceptance with regard to infrastructure projects, like new grid assets or onshore wind farms.
PROSUMER POWER SCENARIO
This scenario assumes more PV, electric vehicles, heat pumps and enduser flexibility, while the other values are kept the same as in the Current Commitments scenario.
This scenario assumes that current consumer trends accelerate faster than in the Current Commitments scenario. Prices for technologies like PV, home batteries, and electric vehicles continue to fall, making them more accessible to households. In addition, a faster rollout of heat pumps in existing and new buildings, driven by additional policies but also more end-user flexibility is assumed to be available in the system.
METHODOLOGY
This study includes a simulation of 11 years (from 1 September 2026 to 31 August 2037) for the entire European system – not just for Belgium. This allows the interdependent nature of electricity markets and grid dynamics to be reflected.
Each of these years is assessed against 200 different climate year profiles, meaning weather-dependent generation and consumption is modelled on an hourly basis, under a very broad set of possible conditions. Additionally, a flow-based market model is used for the entire Central Europe Capacity Calculation Region (CCR), ensuring an accurate representation of cross-border flows and network constraints.
Central Europe CCR consists of the
zone borders between the following EU Member States, plus Switzerland’s bidding zones: Austria, Belgium, Croatia, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Luxemburg, the Netherlands, Northern Ireland, Poland, the Republic of Ireland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.
MAIN CHANGES SINCE THE 2023 ADEQUACY AND FLEXIBILITY STUDY
This report is Elia’s fifth biennial study on Belgium’s adequacy and flexibility needs, covering the period 2026–2036. It builds on the previous adequacy and flexibility study (referred to from here onwards as ‘AdeqFlex’23’), which was published in 2023, and incorporates the latest market trends, policy developments and updated system insights. Several key assumptions and drivers have changed for Belgium since the publication of the last study.
1.
Lower levels of electricity demand and the delayed electrification of industry
Compared with AdeqFlex’23, the projected level of electricity consumption in Belgium is lower. This reflects recent trends, including a reduction in the level of industrial electricity demand and delays to industrial electrification projects.
However, this decrease is not uniform across all sectors. The electrification outlook for the transport and heating sectors remains largely in line with previous projections. In addition, the growth in demand linked to data centres has been confirmed and remains robust.
2.
More electric vehicles, but a slower development of flexibility
Progress continues to be made on the electrification of the transport sector. The Current Commitments scenario of the current study (AdeqFlex’25) now anticipates a slightly higher number of electric vehicles (EVs) being on the road by 2030 than was projected in AdeqFlex’23. However, one important change concerns the level of flexibility unlocked from these EVs.
In light of slower-than-expected market developments – such as the limited uptake of dynamic electricity tariffs – the share of flexible charging is now expected to be lower than previously assumed. A larger portion of EV charging is therefore still expected to occur in an uncontrolled manner (‘natural charging’).
Nonetheless, the growing adoption of tariffs which incentivise behavioural changes and self-consumption (from solar PV) will help foster some degree of flexibility.
3.
Adjusted assumptions regarding the electrification/flexible consumption patterns of industry and data centres
Industrial electrification plans have been slowed down, and recent trends indicate that there has been a reduction in levels of industrial electricity consumption. As a result, the additional level of industrial demand projected in AdeqFlex’25 arises at a slower pace than included in AdeqFlex’23 (brutto). At the same time, flexibility expectations related to larger industrial electrification projects have also been revised downwards, based on feedback collected since AdeqFlex’23 and results collected during recent client surveys.
By contrast, the growth in the level of demand from data centres has been confirmed, and remains an important driver in future load projections.
4.
Delays in the development of offshore wind and interconnector projects
AdeqFlex’23 assumed the development of the Princess Elisabeth zones (PEZ) I, II and III by 2030, including the Nautilus interconnector. In addition, the TritonLink interconnector (linking Belgium to Denmark) was also assumed to be commissioned by 2032.
Rising costs for high-voltage direct current (HVDC) infrastructure and related market uncertainties have delayed the timeline for the development of additional offshore wind capacity in Belgian waters beyond PEZ I and PEZ II, and have also delayed the development of interconnectors.
AdeqFlex’25 therefore explores various sensitivities after 2035 for offshore wind and interconnector capacity between Belgium and other North Sea countries.
5.
New capacities that have been secured as part of the CRM
Since the publication of the previous study, additional (new) capacities have been awarded contracts through Belgium’s CRM. These include new storage projects that are due to be commissioned over the next three years and the lifetime extension of an existing open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT), which were not considered in AdeqFlex’23.
KEY MESSAGES
MESSAGE 1
THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE SYSTEM FACES FLEXIBILITY AND INFRASTRUCTURE CHALLENGES
Belgium’s electricity system is undergoing a profound transformation. Renewables and storage sites are rapidly being expanded, electrification is progressing across sectors, and digital consumption - driven by data centres - is accelerating. At the same time, industries are facing growing competitiveness pressures and delays in the development of critical infrastructure. However, the efficiency of this transition is hindered by the slower-than-expected uptake of end-user flexibility.
MESSAGE 2
THE CRM IS ESSENTIAL FOR SECURING EXISTING AND NEW CAPACITIES, AND MAY BE COMPLEMENTED BY STRUCTURAL LEVERS
Our adequacy assessments confirm that Belgium’s electricity system will remain reliable in the short term, thanks in large part to the various CRM auctions which will begin to deliver capacity from 2025 onwards and the lifetime extension of nuclear units. From 2028 onwards, the CRM will continue to play a key role in the system, since it will help to retain vital ageing dispatchable capacity and support investments in new capacities. Additional structural levers could be mobilised to complement the capacity developed through the CRM. Timely decisions regarding these options would enable the Belgian system to gradually build a more diversified, resilient and decarbonised energy mix.
AdeqFlex’25 2026-2036
MESSAGE 3
FLEXIBILITY ACROSS ALL LEVELS IS KEY FOR MANAGING PERIODS OF OVERSUPPLY AND VARIABILITY
Accelerating the rollout of system-wide flexibility - across consumers, including the residential and industrial sectors – will be critical for ensuring that the system remains efficient, resilient and future-proof. As the levels of renewable generation continue to grow, periods of oversupply will become increasingly frequent. Meeting these challenges will require a balanced combination of solutions: the deployment of storage solutions, increased levels of flexibility from end users, and enhanced levels of flexibility from (decentralised) renewable energy sources themselves. By unlocking the end-user flexibility the consumer wins twice: lower system costs and a lower electricity bill. Further market, regulatory and technical reforms are necessary to enable this.
AN INCLUSIVE AND COMPLIANT APPROACH
INCLUSIVE STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION
In line with the Belgian Electricity Act, this study was prepared in collaboration with the Federal Public Service (FPS) Economy and the Federal Planning Bureau, and in consultation with the Commission for Electricity and Gas Regulation (CREG). Regular meetings and consultations were held with these institutions from June 2023 onwards.
In addition, a public consultation was held in November 2024, during which stakeholders were given the opportunity to review and to learn about the data and methodology used and different scenarios explored for the study. Following this, Elia received over 100 comments and suggestions from 15 stakeholders.
A wide range of stakeholder proposals were integrated into this study. Firstly, as suggested, the latest data relating to 2024 for all countries was included in the scenario trajectories (amount of RES, EVs, HPs, offshore ambitions, electrification, impact of the energy crisis). Secondly, three pan-European scenarios were developed to reflect the various uncertainties which are currently shaping the energy landscape.
COMPLIANT WITH BELGIAN AND EU REQUIREMENTS, USING UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION
After EU Regulation 2019/943 came into force (in October 2020), the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) approved the methodologies for performing future European Resource Adequacy Assessments (ERAA) and national adequacy assessments.
This study is fully aligned with the current legal and regulatory frameworks, including EU Regulation on Electricity Market design (as part of the Clean Energy for All Europeans Package) and the ERAA methodology. The scenarios explored in this study are based on the most up-to-date information that Elia had access to at the end of February 2025. This includes the regional and federal ambitions which are now covered by government declarations or in the Regional/Federal Energy Climate Plans which are due to be integrated into the updated draft Belgian National Energy and Climate Plan, which should be submitted by Belgium in the course of 2025.
This study also includes Europe’s most recent ambitions, policies and targets (e.g. Fit for 55, REPowerEU); Member State plans or ambitions; the most recent offshore wind ambitions and developments for each country; and public announcements (e.g. national unit closures/extensions, historical data); national adequacy studies and bilateral discussions.
CAPACITY OUTLOOK FOR BELGIUM
ADDITIONAL CAPACITY NEEDS OVER THE NEXT DECADE
The figure below illustrates the new amounts of capacity that Belgium will need (assuming a 100% availability level) to meet its reliability standard over the coming decade.
WHAT DOES THE FIGURE ABOVE DEMONSTRATE?
The figure depicts Belgium’s projected capacity needs over the next 10 years, highlighting:
• NEW CAPACITY already contracted through the CRM.
• NUCLEAR EXTENSION - Doel 4 and Tihange 3 until 2035.
• CAPACITY GAP or margin under three different EUSAFE scenarios:
– Constrained Transition (CT);
– Current Commitments & Ambitions (CC);
– Prosumer Power (PP).
These reflect varying assumptions about electrification, levels of renewable growth and flexibility, and the impact of foreign short-notice risks which lie beyond Belgium’s control and responsibility.
• IMPACT OF SLOW FLEXIBILITY UPTAKE – The additional capacity need that could arise if flexibility uptake in the industrial, residential and tertiary sectors is slower than expected.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN IN PRACTICE?
Electrification across society will drive additional capacity needs to ensure adequacy
• NEAR-TERM MARGIN, BUT NEW NEEDS FROM 2028 – While Belgium is expected to maintain a capacity margin in the near term – supported by the lifetime extension of nuclear reactors and capacities contracted under the CRM – a need for new capacity emerges from 2028 onwards in certain scenarios, and from 2030 onwards in all scenarios.
• LARGER GAP EXPECTED BY 2035 – By 2035, a larger capacity gap is expected to appear as current nuclear reactors (Doel 4 and Tihange 3) reach the end of their lifetime extensions
• FLEXIBILITY REMAINS KEY TO LIMIT CAPACITY NEEDS – The capacity requirements already take into account the development of expected additional consumer flexibility. However, if this flexibility does not materialise, additional volumes of capacity will need to be secured. Specifically, the slower uptake of flexible consumption in the residential, tertiary and industrial sectors could increase capacity needs by approximately +700 MW by 2030 and +1,300 MW by 2036.
THE FOLLOWING ELEMENTS ARE ALREADY TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN OUR GAP/MARGIN CALCULATIONS:
GENERATION
all existing generation units (except those officially scheduled for closure);
new capacities secured through the CRM, including new batteries, combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plants, and refurbishments;
the lifetime extensions of the Doel 4 and Tihange 3 nuclear reactors (whose operation, at the time of writing, has been approved until 2035);
the additional renewables, including the planned commissioning of the Princess Elisabeth Zone I which is assumed for 2031 (+700 MW) and Zone II which is assumed for 2032 (+1,400 MW).
FLEXIBILITY & STORAGE
the existing level of demand response (considered to fully contribute to adequacy);
the additional amounts of flexibility expected to be developed alongside the spread of electrification (both at residential and industrial levels);
the existing and contracted level of storage in the system amounting 1,500 MW in 2028 the development of small-scale storage accounted for in the scenarios
— To simplify the message, the decreased contribution of existing and contracted batteries to adequacy is not integrated in this chart.
IMPORTS
The contribution of cross-border exchanges to adequacy is captured through detailed, hourly modelling of the entire European power system.
EU-SAFE
Given Belgium’s high dependence on imports, any event happening abroad will have a significant impact on its adequacy requirements. In this study, we therefore take into account several sensitivities like the reduced availability of France’s nuclear fleet, the possible delayed deployment of grid infrastructure abroad or risks of drought that could lead to low levels of hydroelectric production in Europe.
Adopting a prudential approach, Elia recommends the use of the EU-SAFE scenario as a reference for maintaining Belgium’s security of supply. This scenario represents the sensitivity of a reduced availability of France’s nuclear fleet. This is also the scenario that was chosen to calibrate the CRM parameters by the Belgian federal government in the past auctions.
i It is important to note that this adequacy and flexibility study is not a CRM calibration report and does not aim to calculate future auction parameters.
WITHOUT SUPPORT, A LARGE SHARE OF THE EXISTING THERMAL FLEET COULD CLOSE OVER THE COMING DECADE
Our analysis shows that without support mechanisms - such as the CRM - approximately 1,600 MW of existing thermal capacity (mainly old units) is at risk of leaving the market in the coming decade. This is largely driven by the ageing nature of Belgium’s thermal power fleet, with several units soon requiring significant refurbishment to remain operational.
The figure below illustrates the capacity at risk under different scenarios and sensitivities. The values are representative of the entire horizon of the study as economic viability is calculated on the unit lifetime. All values shown represent the nominal capacity.
EXISTING CAPACITY AT RISK OF CLOSURE WITHOUT ADDITIONAL ECONOMIC SUPPORT
WHAT DOES THE FIGURE ABOVE DEMONSTRATE?
• Belgium currently has approximately 7,500 MW of nominal installed capacity from large existing CCGT, OCGT units (including large Combined Heat and Power plants or CHPs), and turbojets (TJ).
• An economic viability assessment is carried out for all these units, excluding those under CRM contracts or with a must-run operation. It evaluates their projected market revenues against their fixed cost requirements for the coming years.
• The figure illustrates the volume of existing capacity that is not economically viable when considering both fixed costs and market revenues.
• The economic viability assessment is conducted iteratively until a tipping point is reached—where all remaining units in the market are financially sustainable under current market conditions.
• The volume shown in the figure represents the capacity that was removed until all remaining units were found to be economically viable.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN IN PRACTICE?
• CAPACITY AT RISK – Without additional support, around 1,600 MW of existing units (about 20% of the current thermal fleet) could be at risk of closure. This corresponds to 3 to 4 existing CCGTs (of around 400500 MW each). Note that old OCGTs and turbojets are also found to be non economically viable without support.
• IMPACT OF ADDITIONAL NUCLEAR EXTENSION
This at-risk volume could increase to up to 2,400 MW if an additional lifetime extension to a nuclear unit (assumed to be 1 GW in the simulations) is implemented within the simulated period. Indeed, such an extension would further reduce the running hours of existing thermal plants, so widening the ‘missing money’ problem and increasing the likelihood of plant closures.
• CRM REMAINS CRITICAL – The continued operation of the CRM – which addresses the ‘missing money’ problem – is therefore critical. The CRM both supports investments in new capacity and also ensures the retention of existing thermal plants. Maintaining this mechanism is key for preserving the adequacy of Belgium’s system over the coming decade.
CRM WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A KEY ROLE – STRUCTURAL MEASURES MAY COMPLEMENT IT IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG TERM
CRM auctions are expected to continue fulfilling their role in securing the capacity Belgium requires to meet its adequacy needs in the coming years. However, to address the capacity gap in the medium to long run, additional structural solutions may complement the CRM.
The figure below depicts the volumes for each year which are to be secured through the different CRM auctions (on top of all existing capacity). The figure also outlines potential structural solutions that could be deployed to address the long-term gap — solutions that extend beyond adequacy alone.
WHAT DOES THE FIGURE ABOVE DEMONSTRATE?
The figure builds on the previous one by illustrating the following.
• Remaining capacity needs for each year within the currently approved CRM timeline. It assumes that the CRM continues to fulfill its role by contracting the new volumes of required capacity through Y-1, Y-2, and Y-4 auctions, while also ensuring existing capacity remains in the market.
• An overview of potential long-term structural solutions that could be used to address the capacity gap. These include the lifetime extensions of nuclear units, the integration of Nautilus and PEZ III, additional interconnectors that would link Belgium to other North Sea countries, enhanced flexibility across the industrial and residential/tertiary sectors, and behavioral shifts which are aligned with sufficiency assumptions.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN IN PRACTICE?
• SHORT-TERM MARGIN – The previous CRM auctions and recent lifetime extensions of nuclear units have successfully secured Belgium’s adequacy needs, leading to a temporary system margin the coming three winters (provided the CRM mechanism is kept to prevent the closure of existing units as a result of ‘missing money’).
• MANAGEABLE MEDIUM-TERM GAP – The annual new capacity gap increase is estimated to be 100600 MW – a volume that can realistically be covered by future CRM auctions, as it is comparable to new volumes that were contracted in the past. However, over time this could become more challenging if a growing share of batteries is selected, given that battery derating factors are expected to decrease over time.
• LONG-TERM CHALLENGES – Decisions regarding adequacy requirements beyond 2035 need to be prepared now. The capacity gap is expected to grow significantly due to the planned phasing out of nuclear power and the current CRM framework has not yet been validated for this period. Complementary measures would also contribute to addressing energy supply needs in the long term.
STRATEGIC ACTIONS REQUIRED ACROSS DIFFERENT TIMELINES
IN THE SHORT TERM
Adequacy is achievable, but requires the careful management of ageing capacity and flexibility
Under the assumptions of this study, system adequacy is achieved in the near term, but requires ageing dispatchable capacity to be carefully managed and the deployment of flexibility to be accelerated. Our simulations show that Belgium can meet its reliability standard through to 2028 if four key conditions are fulfilled:
1. CRM auctions (Y-1, Y-2) continue to secure the required amounts of capacity;
4. the system is able to integrate this flexibility efficiently.
Existing dispatchable (steerable) capacity remains essential for the system’s adequacy in the coming years, but much of it is ageing and will require significant amounts of investment to remain operational.
While these assets are carbon-emitting, phasing them out too quickly would create an urgent need for replacement capacity, which would pose short-term adequacy risks. A carefully managed CO₂ phase-out trajectory is therefore critical for ensuring a secure and timely transition to cleaner technologies.
Integrating existing and new flexibility into the system will play a significant role in ensuring Belgium’s adequacy. It is therefore essential to continuously improve its quantification and ensure its availability through upcoming CRM auctions.
IN THE MEDIUM TERM
Growing adequacy gap as electrification accelerates
From 2029 onwards, electrification significantly increases the need for new capacity. Under the Current Commitments EU-SAFE scenario, an adequacy gap of 900 MW emerges by 2030, rising to around 2,200 MW by 2034.
Compared with AdeqFlex’23, electrification is now progressing more gradually in certain sectors, and higher volumes of storage are assumed to be developed. However, this is offset by:
— lower levels of flexibility from industry and end users;
— delays in offshore wind development and interconnector projects;
For this period, three CRM auctions (Y-1, Y-2 and Y-4) remain to be conducted –meaning that a significant volume of existing and new capacity can still be secured to safeguard adequacy.
IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG TERM
The CRM may be complemented by strategic choices to close Belgium’s long-term capacity gap
In the long run, new capacity will be needed to maintain adequacy in a decarbonising system. While flexible technologies – such as batteries and flexible loads – will fill part of the need, steerable low-carbon generation will become essential for managing long periods during which levels of wind and sunshine are low, particularly during winter.
With increasing levels of flexibility and storage in the system, the effective contribution of storage (derating factor) decreases over time.
A number of technological options, which fall outside of the CRM, could significantly reduce the adequacy gap, including: further lifetime extensions to nuclear units;
— additional interconnection capacity (including through a new interconnector between Belgium and the UK);
— additional levels of renewables and particularly offshore wind capacity;
— sufficiency measures aimed at reducing the level of demand;
Given the long lead times required to deploy the above-mentioned solutions (which fall outside of the CRM), it is essential to start shaping a clear and coordinated vision for the Belgian energy system of the future.
FLEXIBILITY IS GAINING MOMENTUM
A key enabler for affordability and system stability
THE SYSTEM’S SHORT-TERM FLEXIBILITY NEEDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LEAD-UP TO 2036
Belgium’s electricity system will require growing levels of flexibility as variable renewable capacity - notably wind and PV – continues to be expanded. As we approach 2036, the need for flexibility across different time horizons becomes more pronounced:
ATTENTION IS SHIFTING TO THE MANAGEMENT OF SURPLUS ENERGY IN THE SYSTEM
Periods of surplus energy (when renewables and must run generation is higher than the consumption) are becoming more frequent in Belgium and across Europe. This is already apparent today: negative prices are becoming more common — a trend that is expected to intensify in the coming years as renewable energy sources integrated into the system grow.
Flexibility is essential both for addressing scarcity situations and for managing periods during which generation exceeds demand. By enhancing flexibility through controllable demand, cross-border capacities, controllable (decentral) renewable generation and storage, the overall capac-
ity needed to ensure adequacy can be reduced, while also strengthening grid stability and limiting the risks associated with surplus energy.
Building a dynamic and responsive energy system means aligning consumption with renewable production and allowing production to adapt to price signals, so that its output can be reduced when necessary. The controllability of solar power in particular can play a critical role when other sources of flexibility, such as demand side response and batteries, are already being used to their maximum.
ADDITIONAL END-USER FLEXIBILITY CAN DELIVER €350 TO €500 MILLION IN ANNUAL SAVINGS BY 2036 FOR THE BELGIAN ELECTRICITY SYSTEM
Flexible consumption is key for addressing scarcity situations and also for managing periods of surplus. Assuming the electricity system remains adequate, our analysis indicates that sufficient flexibility resources are expected to be available.
WHAT DOES THE FIGURE ABOVE DEMONSTRATE?
The figure illustrates the evolution of the flexibility needs in the Belgian electricity system over the next decade, aimed at managing unforeseen fluctuations in demand and generation. Both upward (need for increase in generation or decrease in demand) and downward (need for decrease in generation or increase in demand) requirements are provided. These needs are categorised into three types:
• slow flexibility (response time of 5 hours);
• fast flexibility (15-minute response);
• and ramping flexibility (5-minute response).
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN IN PRACTICE?
• Flexibility needs are projected to increase with 2 to 2.5 GW in addition to today’s total flexibility needs due to the growth in renewables.
– Slow flexibility: the importance of intraday markets will increase with regard to managing forecasting updates a few hours ahead of real time, with required volumes exceeding 4 GW in 2036.
– Fast flexibility: the need for flexibility that can react within 15 minutes of real time – to cover prediction errors or generation and transmission (HVDC) asset outages – is expected to double, exceeding 3 GW in 2036.
– Ramping flexibility: the ability to react within 5 minutes of real time to manage up- and downwards variations is expected to reach about 0.5 GW by 2036.
• These flexibility needs will need to be covered via sufficient liquidity in intraday markets and balancing markets.
The expansion of battery storage and greater use of consumer flexibility can reduce the need for short-term market interventions to manage sudden fluctuations in renewable energy output.
However, depending on the scenario, it may be necessary to implement measures that ensure this flexibility is available in real time and at all times.
Facilitating end-user flexibility helps to reduce the need for additional balancing capacity (system operation needs) and the cost of additional capacity that needs to be procured through the CRM. This not only strengthens the reliability of the system, but also leads to substantial cost savings, which are estimated to stand between €350 to €500 million annually by 2036. This value is further increased by grid investment gains and the value of consumers reacting to energy market prices.
350 – 500 M€ per year of system gains of unlocking additional end-user flex towards 2036 without accounting potential gains of optimizing grid investments
UNLOCKING FLEXIBILITY STARTS WITH AWARENESS
Unlocking the value of end-user flexibility remains a strategic priority for Belgium’s electricity system. Yet today, many consumers - both industrial and residential – are not fully aware of the value they can create by adopting a flexible approach to their use of electricity.
With the right knowledge, incentives and tools, end users can build solid business cases for electrification, lower their energy bills, and use their flexible assets more effectively, while also contributing to grid stability during critical moments.
To fully capture this value, flexibility must be unlocked across all user segments of the system, both industrial and residential.
Industrial flexibility plays a particularly important role. It can provide large volumes of flexibility at lower activation costs and help stabilise the system during critical periods. Unlocking this potential will require an updated regulatory framework, and closer collaboration with industrial actors to address operational barriers.
Residential flexibility is equally crucial, particularly with regard to helping to absorb surplus levels of renewable production and managing consumption peaks. However, the current application of this remains too slow, and stronger efforts are needed to raise consumer awareness and engagement.
Residential PV modulation is becoming increasingly important to respond effectively to price signals, especially with the growing volume of PV generation. To maintain system balance, appropriate incentives and measures must be implemented.
COORDINATED ACTION TO ACCELERATE END-USER FLEXIBILITY
Unlocking large-scale flexibility requires coordinated efforts across the entire energy ecosystem. Since Elia’s earlier publications, several key enablers have progressed and continue to evolve. Accelerated and improved outcomes will depend on stronger collaboration among all stakeholders.
Empower end users by continuing to enhance end-user knowledge and behaviour, without adding complexity as this is essential to keep it manageable and comprehensible for end consumers.
Providing the right price incentives. Elia seeks to facilitate the development of innovative energy services by commercial parties. A key feature of this facilitation is, next to other relevant price signals (such as day-ahead and intraday markets) the Real-Time Price, which is an evolution of the current imbalance price combined with a price forecast. These price signals should enable suppliers to offer new types of energy contracts to consumers, such as dynamic or fixed time-of-use contracts, which we see emerging in the market. These innovative offers should also be supported by non-static grid tariffs that promote flexibility and encourage optimal energy consumption at times when it’s most beneficial for both consumers and the grid.
Set up the right market design to support market parties in their (innovative) offerings. Industrial clients directly connected to the Elia grid will be able to benefit from the Multiple BRP/Supplier service, which allows different contracts for various assets by appointing separate BRPs/suppliers behind the same head meter. In addition, the Transfer of Energy (ToE) framework enables grid users to leverage their flexibility through a Flexibility Service Provider (FSP), independently of their energy supplier. Starting in 2025, together with the DSOs, we will expand ToE to more customers, including medium and low voltage users.
Deploy enabling infrastructure by ensuring the full deployment of smart meters across all regions in Belgium.
Adoption rate varies between the regions, all DSOs have started the rollout. focusing primarily on consumers with the highest flexibility potential, such as those with electric vehicles, solar panels, or home batteries would facilitate a fast unlocking of the residential flexibility. In parallel, DSOs are finlaising the design of the first release of the supply split enabler that should be implemented by 2027.
Standardise and ensure the interoperability of flexible assets by making these assets ‘flex-ready’ so that they can contribute and deliver flexibility to the system.
SMART FLEXIBILITY COULD DRIVE BIG SAVINGS FOR RESIDENTIAL CONSUMERS
Our analysis estimates the annual savings that end users could achieve — in both commodity costs and network tariffs — by increasing the flexibility of their consumption and production assets over the coming decade.
These estimates focus on long-term structural savings and do not include potential additional gains from participation in intraday or balancing markets or evolutions in grid tariffs.
could be gained from short-term flexibility
WHAT DOES THE FIGURE ABOVE DEMONSTRATE?
The figure illustrates the potential annual financial benefits for individual consumers who actively manage – or ‘flex’ – their levels of electricity consumption and production. These benefits include savings on both commodity prices and network tariffs, such as capacity-based charges.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN IN PRACTICE?
The range shown reflects different scenarios and years over the next decade. The analysis highlights three key levers through which flexibility delivers value.
1. No injection when negative prices occur – By avoiding injecting PV production into the grid during negative price periods, a consumer can save €40 to €250/year (depending on the scenario and year).
2. Optimising EV charging – By smartly charging an electric vehicle (EV), for example when prices are low or to increase self-consumption (in case of a PV installation), the benefit can reach €170 to €530/ year – the largest single lever shown.
3. Optimising heat pump (HP) usage – By adapting heat pump consumption to market signals (such as prices), a benefit of €20 to €70/year can be captured depending on the comfort that the enduser wants and the weather year.
10
FIGURES REFLECTING THE MOST IMPORTANT ASSUMPTIONS AND RESULTS
1. CHANGES IN BELGIUM’S TOTAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
The figure below depicts the changes in Belgium’s total electricity consumption in the three scenarios in the lead-up to 2036. A detailed view per sector is provided for the Current Commitments scenario.
2. EVOLUTION OF BELGIUM’S ELECTRICITY MIX
To illustrate the evolution of Belgium’s electricity mix, specific choices regarding the future generation mix were made within the Current Commitments scenario.
While many uncertainties remain, the figure below assumes 2 GW of nuclear generation in operation after 2035 and 5.8 GW of offshore wind capacity as from 2035. In addition, various sensitivities are analysed and can be found in the main chapters of this study.
HISTORICAL AND FUTURE ELECTRICITY MIX
WHAT DOES THE FIGURE ABOVE DEMONSTRATE?
• The demand for electricity is expected to grow over the next 10 years; the pace of growth of this demand will be different depending on the scenario considered. Electrification will be the main driver of growth. Among the three key sectors – industry, transport and heating – the electrification of the industrial and transport sectors are expected to carry the most significant impact.
• Data centres are also emerging as a future driver of electricity demand, particularly given the rise of artificial intelligence and growing levels of digital consumption.
• The adoption of electric heating in buildings remains relatively low due.
WHAT DOES THE FIGURE ABOVE DEMONSTRATE?
• The figure depicts the changes in Belgium’s yearly electricity mix since 1970. Belgium was heavily reliant on oil and coal until the first nuclear reactors were commissioned in the 1970s. Nuclear power then became the country’s main electricity source.
• With the gradual closure of coal plants in the 2000s and 2010s, the share occupied by gas-fired generation in the mix further increased. Nuclear availability impacted the mix in the 2010s.
• Looking to the future, the figure depicts a growing share of renewables and decreasing share of gas-fired generation while taking into account the lifetime extension of nuclear units.
3. RENEWABLE EXPANSION - SOLAR PV & ONSHORE WIND
While solar PV is expected to continue being expanded due to falling costs, the development of onshore wind faces more structural challenges that may limit its future growth.
DOES THE FIGURE ABOVE DEMONSTRATE?
• After an exceptional surge in 2023, solar PV continued to grow in 2024, with the total level of installed capacity reaching more than 11 GW in 2024.
• The installed capacity is expected to reach regional targets of 16.5 GW by 2030, even under the Constrained Transition (CT) scenario, due to the accessibility and cost of solar PV.
ONSHORE WIND
• Achieving regional 2030 targets for onshore wind (CC and PP scenarios) will require a doubling of the historical growth rate over the next five years.
• In the CT scenario, where permitting barriers and public acceptance (NIMBY) issues remain unresolved, the deployment of onshore wind is expected to slow down over time. 4.
EXPECTED CHANGES IN RESIDUAL DEMAND
Residual demand represents the remaining electricity demand after the output is subtracted from renewable sources, nuclear units, and must-run thermal generation.
EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE AVERAGE DAILY RESIDUAL DEMAND DURING WEEK-END FOR THE ‘CURRENT COMMITMENTS’ SCENARIO ASSUMING NO GENERATION CURTAILMENT AND PRE-MARKET FLEXIBILITY ACTIVATION
WHAT DOES THE FIGURE ABOVE DEMONSTRATE?
• When residual demand is negative, it this an excess of price-insensitive domestic generation – that is, when non-dispatchable renewables and must-run units produce more than the total load. This surplus must be managed through additional flexible consumption, storage, exports, or a reduction in the level of generation.
• When residual demand is positive, this indicates a domestic shortfall. In this case, additional energy is required from other sources, such as dispatchable thermal units, lower flexible consumption.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN IN PRACTICE?
Looking ahead, the continued growth of renewables will cause deeper and more volatile residual patterns. More periods of excess are likely to occur around midday, when large volumes of solar PV generation coincide with lower levels of demand.
5. PERIODS WHEN RESIDENTIAL PV CURTAILMENT IS NEEDED FOR SYSTEM STABILITY
As Belgium moves towards establishing a more electrified and renewables-based energy system, managing moments of structural oversupply — particularly during the spring and summer — is becoming a central challenge. During these moments, further curtailing generation is one of the options to keep the system in balance.
WHAT HAPPENS DURING A SUNNY WEEKEND WITHOUT WIND IN MAY 2032 IN ‘DAY-AHEAD’ ? (ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE)
Week-end consumption at noon - GW Production at noon - GW
In this example, around 4 GW needs to be stored in large scale storage; exported or curtailed. + Additional means will also be needed to cope with short term flexibility needs of the system happening after day-ahead
WHAT DOES THE FIGURE ABOVE DEMONSTRATE?
The graphic illustrates the situation on a sunny, windless day of May 2032.
• CONSUMPTION – In a scenario in which electrification progresses following the Current Commitments scenario, the total level of midday weekend demand could reach ~10 GW. Activating different flexible consumption means (industrial flexibility, EVs and residential batteries) could add an additional 3 GW. The demand would then reach 13 GW.
• PRODUCTION – From a production point of view, there are around 3 GW of must-run thermal units (of which 2 GW of nuclear) and around 14 GW of PV generating. This figure excludes wind generation. The production reaches ~17 GW, leaving a surplus (when compared to the demand) of around 4 GW that must be stored, exported, or curtailed.
• FLEXIBILITY NEEDS – While 4 GW are needed (after pre-consumption flexibility has been activated) in this example, additional flexibility might be required to cope with imbalances that arise between the day-ahead market and real- time operations. During these moments, further reducing the levels of generation may be necessary to maintain system stability. 6.
UNLOCKING ADDITIONAL DECENTRALISED FLEXIBILITY DURING HIGH INCOMPRESSIBILITY PERIODS
In 2026, there is a risk that flexibility needs will not be met for around 300 hours. Depending on how quickly battery capacity and end-user flexibility is developed, this number could increase to 600 hours by 2036. These critical periods occur during periods of structural energy surplus. Additional 1.8 GW (in 2026) to 2.5 GW (in 2030) of consumer flexibility and decentral PV flexibility is needed to react in the market to manage system imbalances.
WHAT DOES THE FIGURE ABOVE DEMONSTRATE?
• The figure outlines the flexibility that needs to be unlocked in intraday and balancing time frame to meet system flexibility needs during moments when the risk of incompressibility is high. The values shown already account for flexibility contributions from batteries, end-user flexibility, large-scale renewable generation farms and cross-border flexibility (in the Current Commitments scenario), as well as already takes into account contributions from centralised and decentralised wind power.
• The estimated flexibility needs therefore represent an indicator for the minimum volume that needs to be unlocked from consumer and decentralised PV flexibility. This capacity must be capable of responding to short-term market signals within the intraday and balancing markets.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN IN PRACTICE?
• The volume of flexibility that needs to be unlocked will amount up to 1.8 GW in 2026, increasing to around 2.5 GW in 2030. This flexibility will need to be unlocked on decentralised PV, or on additional enduser flexibility.
• The need for unlocked decentralised PV can be reduced in the lead-up to 2036, depending on the rate of development of new battery capacity in the system.
• For the sake of guaranteeing system security Elia will closely watch the development of this end-user flexibility. Given the slow development so far, it will have to further assessed if Elia, together with the DSOs, will not have to extend the amount of capacity that can be activated as a last resort via the so called ‘technical trigger” by including additional amounts of PV installations.
7.
EFFECTIVE CONTRIBUTION OF STORAGE TO ADEQUACY
The effective contribution of large-scale storage to adequacy is expected to decrease as more capacity is deployed in Belgium and across Europe.
8.
EXPECTED RUNNING HOURS OF THERMAL GENERATION IN BELGIUM
The expected running hours of gas-fired thermal generation is expected to decrease in the long run. This is due to the increase in renewable capacities. For a country like Belgium that enjoys high levels of interconnection with its neighbours, the running hours of a given technology are mostly driven by its place in the European merit order.
The figure below depicts the required capacity of 4h large-scale batteries which are needed to fully close the adequacy gap identified in the EU-SAFE Current Commitments scenario between 2028 and 2034. The ratio between the nominal battery capacity and the adequacy need responds to the derating factor of the technology – that is, its effective contribution to adequacy.
The merit order is a way of ranking available energy resources for the generation of electricity. It is based on the lowest marginal cost and defines the sequence in which power plants are designated to deliver power, with the aim of financially optimising the electricity supply.
MARKET DRIVEN RUNNING HOURS FOR THE MOST EFFICIENT CCGT, EXISTING CCGT AND OLD CCGT IN BELGIUM IN THE CC EU-BASE SCENARIO
EU-BASE Current Commitments scenario
• In 2028 – 400 MW of additional battery capacity will be needed to fully close the 200 MW adequacy gap. This corresponds to a derating of 50%.
• By 2034 – If the entire gap were to be filled using batteries, an additional capacity of 8,300 MW would be needed. However, this could result in an effective contribution of only 2,200 MW, implying a derating factor of around 25%.
WHAT DOES THE FIGURE ABOVE DEMONSTRATE?
• The figure shows the simulated running hours for the most efficient CCGT, an existing CCGT and an old CCGT unit in Belgium (on average and for the 10th and 90th percentiles).
• Over the next 10 years, the number of running hours will decline for the three types of CCGTs. This decrease can mainly be explained by the increased penetration of renewable energy sources, which is expected to occur both in Belgium and abroad.
9.
CHANGES IN POWER SECTOR CO2 EMISSIONS (INCLUSING IMPORTS) AND CROSS-SECTOR OFFSETS DRIVEN BY ELECTRIFICATION (COMPARED WITH 2024)
Electrification offers up important opportunities for reducing the consumption of fossil fuels, which in turn leads to significant reductions in direct domestic CO2 emissions.
The replacement of internal combustion engine vehicles, gas boilers for residential and tertiary heating purposes and fossil-based heat supplies in industry will lead to a significant reduction in (direct) emissions in these sectors.
The analyses only take the effect of electrification into account. Indeed, there are many other levers that will result in lower CO2 emissions, such as additional energy efficiency or sufficiency measures (changes in behaviour and the use of energy).
EVOLUTION OF CO2 EMISSIONS IN THE BELGIAN ELECTRICITY SYSTEM, EXPRESSED AS DELTA WITH 2024 –
SCENARIO
10. DIFFERENT SCENARIOS LEAD TO DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR THE ENERGY SYSTEM IN 2036
The three scenarios presented in this study result in distinct outcomes for the energy system. Each scenario involves different levels of electrification and varying electricity mix choices, which in turn lead to differences in renewable energy shares, net electricity imports, fossil fuel consumption, overall fuel expenditure, and emission reductions.
The figure below outlines indicators across the different scenarios for the electricity and energy systems for 2036. It is built on the changes assumed across scenarios (all other things being equal). The differences are purely driven by what is happening in the electricity system and the impact that electrification has on the other vectors.
OUTCOMES FOR THE ENERGY SYSTEM IN TERMS OF RES E-SHARE, ELECTRICITY IMPORTS, FOSSIL FUEL USE AND CARBON EMISSIONS
Comparison of different metrics for the different scenarios in the year 2036
WHAT DOES THE FIGURE ABOVE DEMONSTRATE?
• IN THE SHORT TERM – Total emissions (domestic and imports) deriving from the generation of power in Belgium are expected to increase and then reduce in the longer term. This is mainly due to additional levels of gas generation, which will increase the CO2 intensity of electricity generation in the lead-up to 2026.
• BEYOND 2026 – CO2 emissions linked to power generation will steadily decrease due to more renewable energy sources being integrated into the system, despite the growing level of electrification.
• The electrification of the mobility, heating and industrial sectors will more than compensate for the additional emissions linked to increased power generation needs.
• The effect of electrification can reduce emissions by more than 9 Mt of CO2 by 2030 and almost 26 Mt of CO2 by 2036 when including carbon capture and storage (CCS) in industrial processes. While CCS is not seen as direct electrification, it requires large amounts of electricity, which is taken into account in electricity consumption.
WHAT DOES THE FIGURE ABOVE DEMONSTRATE?
• RES-E – The share of energy consumption from renewable sources (RES-E) is higher in the PP scenario due to the higher levels op PV generation that are assumed.
• IMPORT – Net imports of electricity across all of the scenarios are similar.
• REDUCTIONS LINKED TO FOSSIL FUELS - The reduction in fossil fuels (which is mainly linked to electrification) is much higher in the PP scenario, in which the heat and transport sectors are more electrified than in the other scenarios. The highest reduction in fossil fuel expenditure (cost of importing fossil fuels for the final energy demand in Belgium) is seen in the PP scenario, as greater electrification reduces the need for fossil fuel imports.
• EMISSION REDUCTION – Additionally, the reduction of emissions is also highest in the PP scenario, as part of which 31 MTCO2 can be saved compared to today thanks to electrification only (and taking into account the increase in electricity required). This corresponds to one third of today’s total emissions in Belgium.
